Please try again. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. Potemkin military.. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The Russian military is being forced to increasingly rely on outdated Soviet-made equipment in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, pulling out weapons that have been None of this should be overstated. [51]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [52]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [53]https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/28/v-erevane-zaderzhali-rossiyanina-podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve; https://www.police dot am/ru/news/view/%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AC%D5%A B%D5%A6%D5%B4280223.html;https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355;https://ovddot news/express-news/2023/02/28/podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve-zaderzhali-v, [54]https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355, [55]https://www.azatutyundot am/a/32292266.html. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. This is well known. Sign up for notifications from Insider! It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. The Russian government has found Wagner and other private military companies to be useful as a way to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces. Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance? And it's puzzling because Putin is a - he's been a leader in modern warfare not in terms of it being morally good, but in, as you said earlier, hybrid war. They work - they're owned by a Russian oligarch called Prigozhin, who's close to Putin. He was American. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. It's mistaken to assume perceptions of the Russian and Soviet militaries necessarily remain true today. That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. Written By. Thanks for signing up! [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from officers trying to sell submarines to drug runners, to alcoholism in the field and fighter pilots who only flew their aircraft 10 to 20 hours annually culminating in the humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns in the Chechen separatist capital of Grozny. While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. Putin lauded the FSB for its direct participation in the war in non-standard field tasks such as protection of the Russian border and cracking down on terrorist activities, organized crime, corruption, and extremism. [72]The decision also imposes sanctions on seven Russian humanitarian and social movement organizations involved in various Russian schemes aiming to deport children. And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russias military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians. I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. Depends on which standards the word outdated is based. By Hollywood standards, its certainly mostly outdated, there are even personnel wearing 1 Even in victorious campaigns in 1943-1945, it was typical for the Red Army to suffer higher casualties than its defeated foes. Ukraines military, which is dwarfed by the Russian force in most ways, has somehow managed to stymie its opponent. And Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency - you know, the troll factory. There are reasons to believe that the strength of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. As part of that conflict, he is posting photos of dead Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut, giving a glimpse at how severe Russian losses are in the battle. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. Using revised urban-warfare tactics, it methodically leveled Grozny then weathered nearly a decade of violent insurgency to crush surviving rebels. In one sense, this was predictable. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. After days of miscalculation about Ukraines resolve to fight, Russian forces are turning toward an old pattern of opening fire on cities and mounting sieges. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [69], Activity in Russian-occupied Areas(Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems). [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. WebHow outdated is the Russian military? - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting. Will This Make Biden Acknowledge the Supreme Court Is Out of Control. Click here. Pretty outdated. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. And there will be lots of casualties. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys, The Supreme Courts Conservatives Tried Very Hard Today to Find a Good Reason to Screw Biden, Theres a Clear Answer to the Texas Judge Who Thinks He Can Ban Abortion Pills Nationwide. according to the Kremlin's official site. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. "For example, for every item of gear or equipment, we must listen to those who use them and understand how these items perform and whether they are fit for their intended purpose," Putin told his coordination council, according to the Kremlin's official site. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. [37]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [38]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, [39]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons After their initial invasion last year failed to take Kyiv, Russian forces pulled back, mining roads and fields. More recently, after an underwhelming performance in a war with Georgia in 2008, in 2009 Moscow began a new drive to reorganize, professionalize, modernize and selectively recapitalize its military. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. Correction, Feb. 28, 2022: This article originally misidentified Gen. Omar Bradley as British. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. Accuracy and availability may vary. That's clear. [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. Stay up to date with what you want to know. Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. MARTIN: Who are these people? Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. The Russians do not have unlimited quantities of their most modern equipment. There is no debating that. Gone are the days of the 1970s when the US Nor have the Russians established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines. When Russian forces rolled into neighboring Georgia in 2008, they carried the baggage of an outdated Soviet-era military: subpar communications, old equipment This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. [59]Business Insiderconcluded that Russian production remains unlikely to meet demand levels, however. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. When adjusting for purchasing power, this may multiply effective defense spending by at least a factor of three. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. But one thing stands out to some analysts. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. most of it. Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of Pretty outdated. Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. They don't address non-state actors. Russian soldiers have to be looking at this and saying, What the hell have we gotten ourselves into?. But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. This is possible due to the new capabilities of surveillance drones and electronic warfare units to ferret out enemy positions without having to push as many human scouts into harm's way. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter. [19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. The Kremlin appears to be using Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a conduit to reengage with this information operation, likely in pursuit of negotiations on favorable terms to Russia and further delays in the Wests provision of critical weapons systems to Ukraine. By Militaries change in response to experience and material circumstances, and Russia's is no different. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. In theory, tanks and infantry companies in a BTG screen the artillery from counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment. [32]Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces are trying to advance on central Bakhmut from the north near the Stupky station and from positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. Their caution partly explains why they still dont have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, American officials said. But it is relentless, and theres still a lot of force to be applied., As Russias Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. Over the last few weeks, Putin has signaled an urgency for Russia to streamline and update its army's administration procedures and weapons production. Can we corroborate the information? [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions Acknowledge the Court. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of Pretty outdated make Biden Acknowledge the Supreme Court is of. Quitting even after their contracts expire ht https: // https: //www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine at any.. 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