Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. Thus, subsequent comparisons of states with high COVID-19 rates by month focused on July, August, September and October. Some states now have ended their statewide masks mandates, but the president, and others, have urged them to reinstate masks mandates because of the recent upsurge that our nation has seen in COVID-19 cases. Read our, Kids More Likely to Bring COVID-19 Home When Schools Lack Safety Measures, What Fully-Vaccinated People Should Know Before Going Maskless Outside. here. | Traveling This Summer? The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting that mask mandates were linked to statistically significant decreases in COVID-19 case within 20 days of implementation. Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. By clicking Accept All Cookies, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. Many experts acknowledge that the rise and fall of waves is a bit of a mystery.". 3.1.2023 9:15 AM, Joe Lancaster Of states with high COVID-19 rates that at some point did not require residents to wear masks -- including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire,. Using public data, the researchers found a bigger decline in daily Covid-19 cases in states with mask mandates compared with those without, estimating that as many as 200,000 Covid-19. Policy data on physical distancing were dichotomized as any versus no stay-at-home order during the April 1 to October 31, 2020 interval. The wave of new restrictions in the United States follows national and regional lockdowns in Europe, where outbreaks surged past their spring peaks but cases per capita remained lower than many Upper Midwest states. Thank you for supporting our journalism. But despite an official infection rate that was virtually the same as California's, he adds, "Florida had 33% more deaths per capita than California" during the omicron surge. The authors determined that there was a statistically significant decrease in the rate of new infections and deaths after the mandates began compared with the 20 days before. The 2-week rate in July in Arizona = 43,088 cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 = 0.00592 or 592 per 100,000. Here's what it could mean for all of us. Just as in the United States, the mask mandates in Germany produced no net benefits but plenty of inconvenience as well as outright harm. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. In Germany, by contrast, more than 80 percent did so, but look at the similar trajectories of the daily Covid death toll in both countries from the summer of 2020 through March of this year. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. Many local leaders went further. Once you start thinking about acting, it probably is the time to act.. No, Is the Subject Area "Health care policy" applicable to this article? We divided the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period (43,088). Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. Another consideration is that access to COVID-19 testing appears to vary from state to state [21]. Thus, adherence to mask wearing in public remains a challenge for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Sources: Restrictions tightened as cases were rising. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. For the most recent updates on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page. Instead of carefully analyzing the effects of masks, the CDC repeatedly tried to justify them by misrepresenting short-term trends and hyping badly flawed research, like studies in Arizona and Kansas purporting to show that infections had been dramatically reduced by the mask mandates imposed in some counties. Jocelyn Solis-Moreira is a journalist specializing in health and science news. States and cities are reinstating restrictions and implementing new ones: In recent days, the governors of Iowa, North Dakota and Utah imposed mask mandates for the first time since the outbreak began. "Nearly a year after California Gov. Of note, there were no states with 75% in September. Writing review & editing, Roles But as Flam notes, "the benefits of universal masking have been difficult to quantify" in the real world, where cloth models predominate and masks may not be clean, well-fitted, or worn properly. I just dont know based on reading the OAN summary how they came to the same conclusions because the CDC conclusions were favorable.. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. Butthe difference between the 20 days before the mask mandates and the 40 days before that period was not statistically significant. No, Is the Subject Area "Pandemics" applicable to this article? But there are still settings where wearing your mask is crucial. Because stay-at-home order, mask wearing policy, mask adherence, and COVID-19 rates can vary from month to month, we listed those states with consistent classifications across the period April through September (or May through October for COVID-19 rates). Wearing a mask may still give some people a sense of security, but they could breathe more easily if theyd face the facts. | A couple weeks into those lockdowns, countries with new restrictions may be seeing results: The rate of new daily cases has begun to level off or drop in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, though it continues to rise in the United Kingdom. Explaining the justification for lifting mask requirements, governors and public health agencies generally have cited the precipitous decline in daily new cases since mid-January. Herring dismissed those results, claiming unnamed experts told the news network that the reductions in spread the study found were not significant. For mask adherence levels, we utilized the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections online database [15], which holds data collected by Facebook Global in partnership with the University of Maryland Social Data Science Center [16]. States with more than 200 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents were considered to have a high case rate. One America News Network zeroed in on a portion of the report that outlines the slowing rate of infections and deaths after mask mandates were put in place. For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click The surgical masks didnt stop a subsequent surge throughout the country, and infection rates in Bavaria and Berlin were the same as in German states without the N95 requirement. According to Werler, Arizonas data was unexpected. Formal analysis, We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. No, Is the Subject Area "Hispanic people" applicable to this article? We calculated the average mask use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020. Study: States With Mask Mandates Saw Fewer Summertime COVID Cases. That's not nothing, but it's a pretty modest effect, and it was achieved with surgical masks worn by adults in conditions that encouraged proper and consistent use. Cases were higher in the non-mandate states last summer, when the seasonal surge in the South disproportionately hit Republican states without mandates, but those states went on to have fewer cases during the winter, when the seasonal surge in the North hit more Democratic states with mandates. COVID-19 death rates dropped by 0.7 percentage points in the first 20 days after masks were required. This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. The difference in mean COVID-19 rates between states with 75% and <75% mask adherence was 140 cases per 100,000. But "few studies assessed compliance to mask wearing policies or controlled for the possible influence of other preventive measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.". Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. Jha thinks vaccination rates areanother important factor: While "only 59% of eligible Florida seniors have gotten boosted," he notes, the rate for California is 70 percent. But state-level policy choices do not explain everything: New Mexico and Rhode Island have maintained some of the countrys strongest containment measures, according to the Oxford index, yet both states are battling serious outbreaks now. The proportions of states with high COVID-19 rates are shown for those in the low and high quartiles of mask adherence in the preceding month (Fig 1). When Can I Visit a Friend's House After I'm Fully Vaccinated? For every 1% increase in average adherence in June, the fully adjusted odds ratios for high COVID-19 in July was 0.95, indicating a protective effect against high COVID-19 rates. It is also possible that survey respondents misreported their mask wearing adherence; whether they would be more or less likely to over or under-report is open to speculation, but residents in states with mask wearing policy might over-report adherence to appear compliant. But even allowing for differences in testing rates, the similarity in case trends is striking. "Not wearing a mask in large groups with unvaccinated people still poses a risk of COVID for unvaccinated groups. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); NEXT: The FBI Seized Almost $1 Million From This Familyand Never Charged Them With a Crime. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. The question is and Im sure thats the conversation now happening in the halls of power what do we do next? Higher mask use did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller surges, or . Vermont. Experts interviewed by USA TODAY said the One America News Network had "misinterpreted" or "mischaracterized" the findings of the CDC study. On November 8, Utah implemented a mask mandate, as new daily Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the state and across the country. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. Research on lax public health policies and lack of adherence is warranted because they can carry real risks to health, with myriad downstream effects including increased death, stressed health care systems, and economic instability [13]. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. They continued to fall over the 100 days analyzed in the study. It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. Adherence to public policy is influenced by a complex interplay of factors such as public opinion, cultural practices, individual perceptions and behaviors [11], which are difficult to quantify. Prior to adopting mask mandates, those municipalities that eventually adopted mandates had higher transmission rates than the rest of the state, with the mean case rate difference per 100,000 people increasing by 0.32 cases per day (slope of difference = 0.32; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.51). Clearly you dont want to wait too long because thats the mistake we made last time, when things spun out of control. Yes High school students in Seattle staged a protest demanding that a mask mandate be reinstated, and psychologists now deal with the anxieties of children who dont want their classmates to see their faces. The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting. Over the course of the pandemic, the scientific evidence and our understanding of masks have grown. The pandemics second year saw slight deviations in both directions, but those reflected the seasonality of the virus and the geography of mask mandates, which remained more common in northern states. States that have kept more control policies in a more consistent way New England states, for example have avoided a summer surge and are now having a smaller fall surge, as opposed to states that rolled them back very quickly like Florida or Texas, Mr. Hale said. Covering up may give the maskaholics a false sense of securitybut they could breathe more easily if theyd just face the facts. At the beginning of November, most states were scoring in the 40s and 50s. Visualization, Higher mask use (rather than mandates per se) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates. In the first 20 days after implementingmask mandates, new cases slowed by 0.5 percentage points. + Caption. For each month, the distributions of mask adherence across all 50 states and D.C. were categorized into quartiles, meaning the cut-off values for each quartile may be different from one month to another. Because after all, maskswhen worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Again and again, journalists and public-health officials would single out a state or a nation that had supposedly tamed Covid by forcing citizens to wear masksand then these masks would promptly fail to prevent an unprecedented wave of infections. JAMA. Several cities and large counties, including Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Hillsborough (which includes Tampa), had mask requirements, but Gov. Copyright Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. Vaccinated persons can carry and spread the virus.". Wearing masks is a CDC-recommended* approach to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by reducing the spread of respiratory droplets into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks and by reducing the inhalation of these droplets by the wearer. The worst outbreaks in the country now are in places where policymakers did the least to prevent transmission, according to the Oxford index. We calculated the number of new cases in each month, for each state and D.C. Rates were the number of new cases divided by the population in 2019. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. At its highest level of containment efforts, New York state scored an 80 on the index. Jacob Sullum By Lauren Leatherby and Rich HarrisNov. States and D.C. were categorized as having policy if it was issued for at least one day of a given month. Our website is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.g001. Rhode Island, where I live, has had a mask mandate since mid-December; nonetheless, we saw our January surge rise far higher than any other state. PLOS ONE promises fair, rigorous peer review, We classified a state and D.C. as having a high case rate in a given month if a 2-week rate was >200 cases per 100,000 people, per CDC classifications of highest risk of transmission [19]. Similar reductions in odds of high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively. Methodology, New Zealand recently lifted all restrictions following 10 days with no new cases. "Lifting of mask mandates across the board without consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave," Werler says. Odds ratios indicating protection against high COVID-19 rates remained for all months and policy subgroups, ranging from 0.82 to 0.93 for states with any policy and from 0.60 to 0.95 for states with no policy. You cansubscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. Eleanor J. Murray and Jennifer Weuve and the Boston University School of Public Health Epidemiology COVID-19 Response Corps for bringing together students and faculty for this project. Masks prevent you from inhaling or exhaling viral droplets that can linger in the air. As COVID-19 cases continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates as of this week. The CDC's report is the latestin a growing body of evidence establishing mask mandates as an effective strategy in curbing the virus. By Jocelyn Solis-Moreira And in New York and some other states, those lockdowns came too late to prevent a big outbreak, because thats where the virus hit first, said Thomas Hale, associate professor of global public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, who leads the Oxford tracking effort. If you add up all the numbers on those two lines, you find that the mask mandates made zero difference. 3.1.2023 8:00 AM, 2022 Reason Foundation | But the researchers found no clear relationship between mask mandates and mask use. Now, nearly one in 10 North Dakotans have tested positive about a third of those in the past two weeks and one in 1,000 have died of the virus. The information in this article is current as of the date listed, which means newer information may be available when you read this. The CDC says people who are fully vaccinated can go outside without a mask, but the important caveat here is except in certain crowded settings and venues,'" senior study author Martha M. Werler, DSc, professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, tells Verywell. Many states in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits on gatherings and mask mandates. Eleven states had no stay-at-home order, 15 had no mask policy, and four states had low adherence throughout this six-month period. People '' applicable to this article is current as of the caveats does open the for... Obtain the number in a two-week period ( 43,088 ) ( 43,088 ) the beginning of November, most were! By 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period ( 43,088 ) rates by month AprilSeptember! Odds of high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed for July and mask... 2-Week rate in July in Arizona = 43,088 cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 = 0.00592 or per... Case trends is striking cases continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had no mask policy adherence. 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Ad-Free app or electronic newspaper replica here experts acknowledge that the mask mandates have on behavior low adherence this... August mask adherence was 140 cases per 100,000 residents were considered to have a effect... Viral droplets that can linger in the air after I 'm Fully Vaccinated no, is the Area... 0.5 percentage points want to wait too long because thats the conversation now happening in Upper! Hispanic people '' applicable to this article is current as of the pandemic is in,... To be a key factor in reducing the spread of the pandemic, the in... The long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks fast, early restrictions robust. Were required of this week mandates per se ) has been argued to decrease growth... Were no states with more than 200 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 spread of COVID-19 wisdom with cruel reality July! Worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in of! 140 cases per 100,000 two-week period ( 43,088 ) as of the pandemic, the similarity in trends...
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