Rob McCathie ( Liberal Democrats) Ben Schultz ( Animal Justice) Steph Hodgins-May ( Greens) Jane Hickey ( United Australia) Assessment Macnamara has been under threat from the Liberal Party in the past, but it's unlikely the Liberal Party could win in the current environment. What they care about is what matters to me. Greens overtaking Labor means Labor will finish 3rd. First Preference Results 1983-2019, The Labor lean of Melbourne Ports/Macnamara has declined at recent elections, but as discussed above, the three-way nature of the contest means the after preferences count is the secondary hurdle Labor must clear to win. Labor need the remaining votes to actually break stronger for them compared to the Libs than they have, to get in front of them. The only things saving Josh Burns here today are the cratering Liberal vote and, most importantly of all, the perfect little gerrymander with Higgins. The incumbent, Debbie Thomas, is wrapping up her second consecutive term, and cannot run for reelection because of termlimits. Being able to communicate answers to these folks with some type of clarity is where Im passionate. The first preference vote graph is reflected in many inner-Melbourne electorate, with a rise in Green support mirrored by a decline in Labor first preference vote. The only seat that is in-doubt in my mind is Gilmore which is likely to go Liberal. They are incumbents Joyce Barton and Corey Runte, as well as . With more than 85,000 residents, Melbourne is Brevard County's second-most-populous city, behind Palm Bay. Three candidates will be running for two available seats on the Melbourne Beach Town Commission in the Nov. 8 election. Occupation:Co-owner/operator at Chez Quans, Political/government/civic experience:None, Campaign email:adamformelbourne@gmail.com, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links:Facebook:Adam Woodworth for Melbourne 2022. i would part of the story here is that the Libs overperfomed in Elite areas such as Albert Park compared to May. Boyd Community Hub, 207 City Rd Southbank. These two factors, along with the unknown that is the ~1000 Covid phone votes, will most likely determine the outcome but either way, the 3CP count is headed for a photo finish with all 3 parties practically guaranteed to be over 33% with only a couple of hundred votes between them. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998. This was looking like a near-certain Labor retain but every batch of votes that has come in has been breaking exactly the way it needs to for the Greens to win, so basically they just need that to continue through the last 6000+ votes to win the seat, while Labor need the final 6000+ to be sufficiently weaker for *either* the Greens or Liberals for them to retain it. This made Adam Bandt the first Green to win a seat in the House of Representatives at a general election. Unlock unlimited digital access to floridatoday.com Click here and subscribe today. On those boundaries, for decades it was one of the safest Labor seats in the country, and Labor usually easily retained it even during severe nationwide defeats for Labor. The electorate was created at the time of Australian Federation in 1901 and was one of the original 65 divisions contested at the first federal election. Melbourne:2022 elections: Meet the six candidates running for three Melbourne City Council seats; William Bowe explains in his latest blog (from after yesterdays counting finished) that his results system is incorrectly calling it due to its inability to think in three-party terms. Greens definitely over performed in Prahran. LIB 29,202 2. Continue exploring need and feasibility of West Melbourne building a fire department. Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne) Level 5, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne 3000. Support local journalism. Twitter: @RickNeale1. There is an emergency bushfire warning in place for Maintongoonin Victoria. 2. However, the problem they might face in that redistribution scenario is that removing the Liberals best area (Caulfield) would almost certainly drop the Libs to third place and make it an ALP v Greens count where theyd probably have a 5% margin to make up rather than a ~200 vote margin to get into a LIB v GRN count. Cruise ship schedule 2022-23. To mitigate flooding and traffic issues, upgrades of stormwater and transportation infrastructure in our older neighborhoods must be a city priority. But, because the margins are so slim, what favours Labor is that it wont take much of a change to how votes are breaking (either Libs or Greens start doing worse) for them to stay in the top two and win. It was located to the south of Melbourne's central business district and covered an area of approximately 40km2 around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay. Either way this might be the last seat to be called because it wont even be mnown who the two-party count is between until a full distribution of preferences, and all 3 combinations are possible. At first glance that looks like Labor would outperform the Liberals right? GRN 30,291. Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. West Melbourne, a 10-square-mile enclave nestled between its larger neighbors of Melbourne and Palm Bay, moved to support its own water plant to meet the needs of the growing city. Melbourne Ports had been a tight three-way contest in 2016, Labor's Michael Danby staying narrowly ahead of the Greens to eventually win a narrow victory over the Liberals on Green preferences. Stephen Mayne was the moderator. This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria Melbourne. Current 3CP count: 1. Born and raised in Caulfield, Burns is the grandson of Jewish migrants who left Europe and settled in Melbourne in search of a safe place to raise their families. Labor won a large 70.2% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in St Kilda, 55% in Caulfield and 57.5% in Port Melbourne. She recently resigned from the office of Senator Hon Jane Hume. Incumbent Mark LaRusso facesShawn Allred Middleton in the District 2 race. After attending Mount Scopus College, Josh graduated from Monash University with a Bachelor of Arts, majoring in Political Studies. 1. If we assume that 90% of remaining absents & dec prepolls are formal, and they break exactly the way they have been so far, that will add the following votes to each party: 1434 to the Libs 1347 to Labor 1634 to the Greens, Which brings the totals to: 1. He was elected Leader after the 2019 election. City Council members also could soon discuss the feasibility of building their own city-run fire department. Sure, the 2CP run-off will be revealed upon the throw of all preferences. Florida 2022 elections. Campaign Email: diana@dianaforcouncil.com, Campaign Facebook page: Facebook.com/DianaForWestMelbourne. As a scientist, I will bring critical thinking to our decision-making. Melbourne Ports) Sonya Semmens Federal Candidate for Higgins Tim Hollo Candidate for Canberra Celeste Liddle Federal Candidate for Cooper Piers Mitchem Federal Candidate for Kooyong Rachael Jacobs Candidate for Grayndler Charlotte McCabe Candidate for Newcastle Use tab to navigate through the menu items. Geography Inner south of Melbourne. Filling vacancy: Diana Adams appointed to West Melbourne City Council, replacing Daniel Batcheldor, Police chief vacancy: West Melbourne names eight finalists to replace retired police chief Richard Wiley, City manager change: West Melbourne may hire Tim Rhode as city manager; Daniel Batcheldor to leave City Council. This must be a record for having the biggest difference between the primary vote and 2PP vote. ), meaning any 2CP combination is still possible. Melbourne Ports has become more middle class in recent years with accelerating inner-city gentrification and higher density housing developments. ALP 29,152 3. The electorate covers 40 square kilometres. Greens 31.50% 3. Contents 1 Members 2 Election results 2.1 Elections in the 2010s 2.2 Elections in the 2000s Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Also disagree with you Dan M. It is completely misleading to analyse the Labor Albert Park Margin and Caulfield Margin considering that Balaclava, St Kilda and other areas are in the Caulfield electorate (fairly progressive electorates). The only way that I cant see Labor winning here is if all the cards fall the right way for the Greens and that doesnt often happen. Thats extraordinary, quite possibly the closest 3 way 3CP count ever, and I think a full 3CP recount if its that close is a very likely possibility. We pay our respects to Elders past, present andemerging. While Macnamara is mentioned as a possible Green gain, the playing field from which the Greens might emerge as victors differs greatly from that in traditional Labor seats north of the Yarra. Tree lined, nature strips, large houses, large schools, etc. Globally the pollsters, in 2022, have been consistently overestimating social democratic support and underestimating Green support. 2016 Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne). After the exclusion of several minor party candidates with 7.3% between them, the three-candidate count had become Liberal 43.7%, Labor 28.7% to Greens 27.6%. [3], Coordinates: .mw-parser-output .geo-default,.mw-parser-output .geo-dms,.mw-parser-output .geo-dec{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .geo-nondefault,.mw-parser-output .geo-multi-punct{display:none}.mw-parser-output .longitude,.mw-parser-output .latitude{white-space:nowrap}375122S 1445834E / 37.856S 144.976E / -37.856; 144.976, Electoral results for the Division of Melbourne Ports, "2016 Census QuickStats: Melbourne Ports", "Victoria gets new seat named after Malcolm Fraser, ACT gains one called Bean", "Profile of the electoral division of Macnamara (Vic)", Division of Melbourne Ports - Australian Electoral Commission, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Division_of_Melbourne_Ports&oldid=1092465625, Retired after Melbourne Ports was abolished in 2019, This page was last edited on 10 June 2022, at 13:16. 1966 was the last time the Liberal PV was below 30% in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara. A successful businesswoman, Bernadene has been a resident for 20 years in the electorate of Macnamara. Will the current flows (which put the Greens on track to pass Labor) continue? And all it will take is slightly weaker flows for them, particularly from the postal votes, or just less postal votes being returned, for Labor to stay ahead of them. Council members also comprise three of the seven members of the. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteran William Johnson, who sits on the city's Board of Adjustments. To make a comment or suggest a change to the election site, pleasecontact us. Bandt describes himself as a book nerd and live music fan and at the time of his election was completing a PhD in Law and Politics at Monash University. So lets look at Absent votes first. Simon's brother David also served as Treasurer of Tasmania in the 1990s. The margin has been changed to 4.9% following the release of the Australian Electoral Commission's redistribution estimates. I think the true boundary here is Hotham street which separates Port Phillip from Glen Eira.. Not just passing legislation in the House if representatives but also the symbolism of legitimacy that Anthony Albanese won a majority in his own right. A more extensive change to the boundary between Macnamara and Higgins had originally been proposed but was abandoned when the final boundaries were released. Labor's results ranged from 41.1% at Caulfield Presbyterian Church to 78.3% at St Kilda Primary School where the Greens finished ahead of the Liberal Party on first preferences. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean. Authorised by the Electoral Commissioner, Canberra, Register of political parties and decisions, Torres Strait Regional Authority elections, A4 map of the Division of Melbourne Ports (2010) [PDF 785KB], Map of the Division of Melbourne Ports (2010) [PDF 13.4MB], 2016 federal election House of Representatives results for Melbourne Ports, 2013 federal election House of Representatives results for Melbourne Ports, 2010 federal election House of Representatives results for Melbourne Ports, 2007 federal election House of Representatives results for Melbourne Ports, 2004 federal election House of Representatives results for Melbourne Ports, Party codes, demographic ratings and seat status. Labor appeared to have picked up primary votes in both Brisbane and Macnamara just the greens picked up more, so not all negative for them Interestingly the preferences for non-green/lib/labor voters in those seats (mainly right-wing UAP,ON, LDP and smaller left-wing AJP) were split around 50% lib, 35% green and 15% alp so assume more UAP/ON/LDP voters preferenced greens over labor. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining. I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department," Dittmore said. In 2018, I pledged to work toward a healthy Indian River Lagoon. Tues, 15th November with the Nina Taylor (ALP), Lauren Sherson (Liberal) and Kim Samiotis (Greens). This article originally appeared on Florida Today: Six candidates are seeking three seats on Melbourne City Council, With increased flooding during Saturday's deluge, Eau Gallie business owners blame Brightline, Daily Bread drops plan to build affordable housing on Malabar Road; alternate locations sought, Sunwing Airlines to launch service from Melbourne to three Canadian cities in December, Melbourne leaders dedicate $32 million police headquarters to force's lone fallen officer, Harry Goode's Outdoor Shop gets new owners, interior rebuild after 76 years in Melbourne, Six candidates are seeking three seats on Melbourne City Council, Chicago Mayor Lightfoot ousted; Vallas, Johnson in runoff, King asks Duke and Duchess of Sussex to move out of Frogmore so Prince Andrew can move in, Biden Mocks Marjorie Taylor Greene With 1 Simple Hand Gesture, A Nebraska high-school cheerleader competed on her own after the rest of her squad quit. The 2022 Federal Election: A Meet the Candidates was held on 3rd mat at the boyd community Hub. Theres an estimated 6500 ballots left to count, and if they continue to break the same way they currently are, and Covid votes also favour the Greens, they will be on track to erase that deficit, while the strong preference flow to the Libs also keeps them ahead of Labor, dropping Labor to third place. Support for the Greens rose through the first decade of the twenty first century, polling 15.7% in 2001, 19.0% in 2004, 22.8% and finishing second after preferences in 2007, and 36.2% and achieving victory on Liberal preferences in 2010. Listing of Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne) Notices to Mariners for the current calendar year and those in force at 1 January of the current year. If all the remaining votes, using Kevin Bonhams expectation of 1750 postal votes, break exactly as they currently are, I only have the Greens beating Labor by about 50 votes which would be an automatic recount. The red line in the chart below highlights how strong Labor's two-party preferred vote is in Melbourne compared to Victoria as a whole, consistently 15-20% higher. The Greens candidate will again be Steph Hodgins-May, a lawyer who contested Ballarat in 2013, Melbourne Ports in 2016 and Macnamara in 2019. Current preference flow: LIB 47%, GRN 35.4%, ALP 17.6%. Macnamara covers the port and bayside suburbs of Melbourne south of the Yarra, as well as suburbs to the south-east beyond Punt Road between Dandenong and Glen Huntly Roads. Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. The city, for now, contracts out its fire services to the county. Political/government/civic experience: West Melbourne City Council (appointed June 2022); secretary of Space Coast Field of Dreams board; West Melbourne Citizens Leadership Academy; former deputy chair of West Melbourne Parks & Recreation board; former Brevard educator; Transportation & Intergovernmental Relations Policy Committee member; member of the Melbourne, Palm Bay, Titusville and Cocoa Beach chambers of commerce; and LEAD Brevard board member. I also support a public/private partnership between government and private enterprise to create a network of community land trusts throughout the county to provide long-term stewardship and conservation of open space and natural resources. Tel: +61 3 9646 8544Email: First Issue: Restoring the Indian River Lagoon. A redistribution will see Josh ousted in 2025, but if they fight too hard to preserve the current borders then they might just end up losing both Macnamara *and* Higgins. She is a single mother and has four adopted children, two of which are from overseas. Melbourne: 14 Sep 2022: 162(T)-22: Port Melbourne / Webb Dock Berth 3 East extension project restricted zone chainage extended: 02 May 2022: 408(T)-21: Port Melbourne / Webb Dock . As for the current results as they stand, the AEC has been conducting and publishing a 3CP count and the Liberals are in fact first: https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm. A list of profiles for Candidates A-Z in the Federal Election 2022 The West Finger Pier is a good vantage point to view the ships. Can somebody explain why if the AEC are doing a 3 way count here, why they are not doing one in Richmond which seems (to me) a seat where the Greens could still get up or at least be second. Please enable scripts and reload this page. 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